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Newsweek - Oct 21, 2006
Republicans losing Evangelical support
By Marcus Mabry
If the elections for Congress were held today, according to the new NEWSWEEK poll, 60 percent of white Evangelicals would support the Republican candidate in their district, compared to just 31 percent who would back the Democrat. To the uninitiated, that may sound like heartening news for Republicans in the autumn of their discontent. But if you’re a pundit, a pol, or a preacher, you know better. White Evangelicals are a cornerstone of the GOP’s base; in 2004, exit polls found Republicans carried white Evangelicals 3 to 1 over Democrats, winning 74 percent of their votes. In turn, Evangelicals carried the GOP to victory. But with a little more than two weeks before the crucial midterms, the Republican base may be cracking.
If something doesn’t give—and quick—Republicans will view 2004 as the good ol’ days. Fifty-five percent of likely voters in the new NEWSWEEK poll say they would vote for the Democrat in their district if the election were held today, versus 37 percent who say they would vote for the Republican. That’s not surprising; the Democrats have been leading in the opinion polls for months. But the new poll suggests—from the leanings of bellwether voting blocs to voters’ priorities—that a possible Republican loss could turn into a rout.
Take white Catholics, swing voters who went for President George W. Bush in the 2004 election. This time 44 percent of them plan to vote Democrat versus 42 percent who plan to vote Republican. Among independents, 44 percent support the Democrat in their district, while 34 percent support the Republican. And voters have more faith in the Democrats to handle almost every major issue presented in the poll, which was conducted on Thursday and Friday nights through phone interviews with 1,000 adults: from Iraq (46 to 34), to the economy (50 to 35), to federal spending (52 to 29), to health care (57 to 24).
But Democrats shouldn’t start measuring for the drapes in the Speaker’s Office just yet. Compared to the NEWSWEEK poll two weeks ago, taken in the aftermath of the Mark Foley Congressional page scandal, the Republicans seem to be closing the issues gap—at least on the issues where they have traditionally enjoyed greater voter trust than the Democrats. The Oct. 5 and 6 poll gave Democrats a lead on moral values (42 to 36), a stunning reversal of every previous poll. While Republicans have not retaken their lead on the issue, they have stopped their slide. In the new poll, 41 percent of Americans say they trust the Democrats more on values and 37 percent said they trusted the GOP more.
Likewise, on the war on terror, once President Bush’s signature issue. While Republicans have not restored their perennial lead over the Democrats, equal numbers of Americans trust each party more (40 percent for each.) Two weeks ago, the Democrats held a seven-point advantage. On immigration, 40 percent trust the Dems more, while 34 percent trust the GOP more. Two weeks ago the Democrats held a nine-point lead on that issue.
That’s a good omen for Republicans as the race enters the home stretch and as the Republican National Committee launches ads designed to highlight the terrorism issue and to paint the Democrats as weak on Osama bin Laden. The poll shows that if Republicans can turn voters’ attention to national security, they could hold off, or at least hold down, a Democratic blitz come Nov. 7.
But the Republicans have a lot of work to do. Right now voters don’t rate the issues where they are most competitive with the Dems as priorities. The poll found terrorism came fourth as the “most important” issue to voters, at just 13 percent; behind Iraq (31 percent), the economy (18 percent), and health care (16 percent). And a solid majority of Americans want the Democrats to take over Capital Hill, 55 percent, versus 32 percent who want the GOP to retain control—a 23-point margin. And the Republicans can’t count on their biggest name, George W. Bush, to help much. While the new poll shows the president with a two-point bump in his approval rating—from an all-time low of 33 percent two weeks ago to 35 percent today—most Americans think Bush is already a lame duck. Fifty-six percent said he won’t be able to get much done in his last two years in office. Only 33 percent believe he can be effective.
Most worrisome for the president, should the Democrats retake one or both houses of Congress, the American public supports their proposed “First 100 Hours” agenda. An overwhelming majority says allowing the government to negotiate lower drug prices directly with pharmaceutical companies should be a top priority for a Democratic Congress (74 percent, including 70 percent of Republicans); 68 percent want increasing the minimum wage to be a top priority, including 53 percent of Republicans; 62 percent want investigating impropriety by members of Congress to be a top priority; and 58 percent want investigating government contracts in Iraq to be a top priority. Fifty-two percent say investigating why we went to war in Iraq should be a top priority (25 percent say it should a lower priority and 19 percent say it shouldn’t be done.)………….
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15357623/site/newsweek/page/2/
USA Today - Tuesday, October 17, 2006
Religious white voters
By Frank Newport
The strong relationship between religion and politics among white voters in America has been at the cornerstone of the GOP’s political strategy over the last two decades. Highly religious white Americans are significantly more likely than less religious white Americans to identify with the Republican Party and to vote for Republican candidates. Most non-whites -- whether highly religious or not -- identify themselves as Democrats and vote Democratic.
Republicans have cultivated religious whites by promoting issues which strike a resonant chord with these voters. Many religious whites are genuinely concerned about erosion in morality and values which they tie to their Biblical faith. Republican efforts to oppose such issues as same sex marriage, abortion and embryonic stem cell research have fallen on sympathetic ears.
Nothing works as well in elections as emotions, and religiously based emotions are some of the most powerful of all. Convincing religious voters that a vote for Republicans means a vote for stemming the tide of secular humanism and the eroding moral and family values has been a highly effective technique for the GOP.
Our latest Gallup Poll analysis indicates the possibility of some problems with this strategy. The Republicans lost significant ground in the Oct 6-8 USA TODAY/Gallup poll on the generic ballot that measures voting preferences in the respondent’s local home district. These losses were visible across most segments of the electorate.
But the drop was disproportionately strong among religious white Americans. Highly religious whites continue to be more likely than less religious whites or non-whites to indicate they are voting Republican. But on a relative basis, the religious whites’ support for the GOP dropped more than other voter groups, comparing the October poll to the average of previous polls June through September. In other words, the Republicans got hit where it hurts – among one of their key base groups of voters.
Could this make a difference on Election Day? It’s too early to know for sure…..
http://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/
Religion Link – July 10, 2006
Evangelicals: Divisible after all?
Several high-profile evangelical Christians are criticizing the evangelical movement for its close alliance with the Republican Party. These voices - scholars, clergy and laypeople - say that evangelicals have sacrificed the message of Jesus at the altar of political influence, throwing over their biblically mandated mission to the poor and disadvantaged in favor of trying to affect decisions about gay marriage, abortion and other issues laden with "moral values." Evangelicals, many of these critics contend, have forgotten Christ's admonition to wage peace in favor of waging the culture wars.
Since the 1980s, evangelical Christians have made up a large chunk of the Republican Party. In the 2004 presidential election, 78 percent of evangelical voters backed George W. Bush, according to the report "The American Religious Landscape and the 2004 Presidential Vote." Of course, there have always been dissenting voices within conservative Christianity - no religious movement is monolithic - but recently those voices have grown louder and more high-profile. Examples include:
A half-dozen books by evangelical authors are calling for major reform. The authors include such evangelical notables as religion historian Randall Balmer, former President Jimmy Carter and theologian Obery Hendricks Jr.
Baptist bloggers discontented with the conservative alignment of the Southern Baptist Convention were instrumental in the election of Frank Page, a younger and potentially more progressive pastor, as the denomination's new president.
Recent speeches by Walter B. Shurden and J. Brent Walker, two prominent Southern Baptist leaders, warn against the close alliance of religion and politics.
A gathering of African-American pastors, led by Dallas pastor Frederick Haynes III, criticized some megachurches and their pastors as being more concerned with politics and wealth than with the poor.
In May, a group of conservative Southern Baptist pastors signed the "Memphis Declaration," a document that calls for repentance and remorse for "triumphalism" in pursuing Baptist causes and for turning "a blind eye to wickedness" within the denomination.
If there is an anti-political push within evangelicalism, it may reflect a broader and growing unease Americans have with government's involvement in moral values. According to a recent Gallup Poll, the percentage of Americans who believe the federal government should promote "moral values" has fallen 12 points in the last decade, from 60 percent in 1996 to 48 percent in 2006……..
http://www.religionlink.org/tip_060710.php
Religion Link
Christian religious groups guide to voters
Election Day is near, and religious organizations are busy distributing voter guides to inform the faithful about issues and candidates. They appear at a time when the IRS is closely monitoring politicking by churches and when high-profile public policy issues are entwined with religious values. This year, religious groups with more liberal political orientations are producing guides, which have long been used by conservative Christians. And all groups are benefiting from the Internet, where guides are posted for downloading by groups and individuals in anticipation of Nov. 7 elections.
Voter guides have generated frequent controversies over allegations that they come too close to politicking on behalf of a particular candidate or party, in violation of IRS rules. When proved, such politicking endangers a religious organization’s tax-exempt status. Experts say most groups seem to have learned from past mistakes, however, and now produce carefully crafted guides that communicate their message without crossing legal boundaries.
Background
For decades many secular groups, often on the liberal side of the spectrum, used voter guides to influence Americans on issues ranging from the environment to civil rights, and many continue to do so. In 1992 the Christian Coalition, long a mainstay of the so-called “Religious Right,” became the first religious group to issue its own guide to candidates and issues.
While the Christian Coalition and similar conservative religious groups have been investigated and penalized by the IRS, some liberal religious organizations are also coming under scrutiny as the nation’s political temperature has risen in recent years over hot-button issues such as Iraq and terror policies.
In September 2006, for example, All Saints Episcopal Church in Pasadena, Calif., refused to comply with IRS demands that it turn over materials related to an investigation of the church for allowing a guest speaker who strongly criticized President Bush. The case has been a lightning rod for protests against the IRS by church groups across the political spectrum, as a Sept. 22, 2006, Los Angeles Times story shows.
IRS guidelines allow churches to publish voter guides, but they are not allowed to endorse a particular person or party. What constitutes an improper endorsement is a judgment call. But through the years, several groups — such as the Christian Coalition in 1999 — have had their tax-exempt status revoked for a period of time. Read the 2006 IRS article “Charities, Churches and Politics,” which includes history, facts and links to reports and rules on the IRS ban on political activity by churches and charities. The IRS routinely issues reminders about its rules in election years. This year’s reminder was issued in June.
According to a Sept. 18, 2006, story in The New York Times, the IRS reported in February that nearly half of the 110 tax-exempt organizations it investigated after the 2004 elections were churches. The IRS said 37 of 40 cases it completed against the churches showed violations of the law, but the churches were issued warnings or hit with an excise tax, and none lost their tax-exempt status.
The impetus for the ban on church politicking was, of all things, Texas politics. The IRS ban dates from a 1954 law that was passed at the behest of then-Sen. Lyndon B. Johnson, who was angry at efforts by a Texas nonprofit group to defeat him. The law says tax-exempt entities such as houses of worship and charities must refrain from what the IRS defines as “any and all activities that favor or oppose one or more candidate for public office.”
Voter guides, initiatives and political statements
CONSERVATIVE CHRISTIANS
The iVoteValues.com program is an initiative launched in 2004 by Richard Land of the Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission of the Southern Baptist Convention. iVoteValues.com aims to register conservative Christian voters (2 million by 2008, according to Land) and offer voter guides and educational information to inform their voting choices. The program says it provides “up-to-date information on every political candidate seeking office on the state and national level in the U.S.” and that it can provide resources to churches that are “well within” the Internal Revenue Service guidelines for tax-exempt religious groups.
The Colorado-based organization Focus on the Family, led by James Dobson, has a related program called iVoteValues.org. Focus on the Family also produces brochures, church bulletin inserts, sermon points and other aids to encourage “values voting.”
The Christian Coalition of America is one of the original and most ambitious organizations to deploy voter guides. The group has diminished in influence in recent years, but it still produces the most complete set of voter guides by state for conservative Christians. The guides are available on the groupﾒs Web site.
Coral Ridge Ministries is the Florida-based church and Christian media network led by D. James Kennedy, a prominent conservative Christian activist. Coral Ridge has a number of programs aimed at registering Christian voters and encouraging them to vote for candidates who share their values. The ministry has a program called ChristianVotes.com, which offers detailed voters guides for many state races and issues.
LIBERAL CHRISTIANS
Red Letter Christians is a new organization of self-described “progressive Christian leaders” that takes its name from the ink color used in some bibles to set off the words of Jesus. The organization is the brainchild of Jim Wallis, a leading liberal evangelical voice and founder of Call to Renewal and Sojournersmagazine. Red Letter Christians aims to set up offices in battleground states and distribute voter guides and other information.
The Interfaith Alliance announced on Sept. 21, 2006, that it would distribute 20,000 pamphlets to churches, synagogues and mosques offering advice on how to comply with federal law regarding houses of worship and politics. The Interfaith Alliance, which counts 185,000 members nationwide, also offers a range of resources on the campaign under the heading “One Nation, Many Faiths.”
A May 1, 2006, Religion Link edition, “The Religious ﾑLeftﾒ Reasserts Itself,” provides further resources for exploring the activities of liberal believers.
ROMAN CATHOLICS
Every four years since 1976, the U.S. Catholic bishops have issued a statement on the roles and responsibilities of Catholics in American public life. In 2003 the bishops approved a comprehensive statement, “Faithful Citizenship: A Catholic Call to Political Responsibility.” Through its Web site, the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops also offers a host of resources for parishes and individuals.
During the 2004 campaign, the National Conference of Catholic Bishops also issued a statement titled “Catholics in Political Life,” which sets out principles for Catholic candidates. On March 10, 2006, the bishops followed that up with a “Statement on Responsibilities of Catholics in Public Life.”
A July 17, 2006, ReligionLink edition, “Will Catholics Swing Back to the Democrats?” explores these and related issues.
Voter guides from other Catholic groups include:
“Voting for the Common Good: A Practical Guide for Conscientious Catholics,” prepared by Catholics in Alliance for the Common Good.
“The 2006 Elections: Becoming a Global Good Neighbor,” prepared by the Maryknoll Office for Global Concerns, which operates under the auspices of the worldwide order of Maryknoll priests, nuns, brothers and lay missioners.
“Voting With a Clear Conscience” by the Rev. Frank Pavone, head of Priests for Life, a vocal group in the Catholic campaign to end legal abortion.
“Voterﾒs Guide for Serious Catholics,” prepared by Catholic Answers Action.
MAINLINE PROTESTANTS
Most mainline denominations are not offering political guides or statements this year.
The main denomination that is publishing such a guide is the Presbyterian Church (USA). Its “Christian & Citizen Election Year Resource” gives an overview of past PCUSA statements on the political responsibilities of Presbyterians and provides resources on specific issues and “do’s and don’ts” regarding political activity by congregations.
The National Council of Churches, whose members include mainline Protestants as well as African-American, Orthodox and Peace churches, published a document in 2004 titled “Christian Principles in an Election Year,” which remains its general statement on election campaigns. The document analyzes major topics in light of Christian thinking and offers resources such as study guides.
OTHER CHRISTIANS
Ecumenical Ministries of Oregon, an organization of 16 Christian denominations including Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox, published a "Ballot Measure Guide" (linked from its home page) for Oregon. Contact executive director David Leslie, 503-221-1054, dleslie@emoregon.org.
OTHER GROUPS
Other religious groups have tended to avoid issuing voter information, for various reasons. Some Jewish groups published voter literature in the 1990s in response to the Christian Coalition efforts, but that has not continued in any broad effort. Jewish leaders say that since the community generally opposes the involvement of religion in politics, the tactic did not suit their goals. They and others also noted the fear of running afoul of IRS rules.
Muslim groups also have not produced much voter education literature, and Islamic groups say they are more focused on voter registration drives. They have also tended to see voter guides and the like as a tool of the Christian right and do not want to be associated with such tactics.
Interestingly, African-American churches are among the most closely watched groups for campaign violations because churches, which are frequently the principal institution in black communities, often invite candidates to speak from their pulpits. But African-American churches are not known for producing extensive campaign-oriented literature, experts say.
WATCHDOG GROUPS
An online group called Rat Out A Church, dedicated to “ending radical left-wing politics in the pulpit,” is one of a number of groups that tries to point the IRS toward what it considers violations of the tax law. The group operates under the auspices of the Religious Freedom Coalition, which is headed by William Murray, son of the late founder of American Atheists, Madalyn Murray O’Hair. William Murray became a conservative Christian and was estranged from his mother.
The American Center for Law and Justice offers a resource page on churches’ tax-exempt status (link from home page). ACLJ has frequently argued in court for the right of churches to engage in politics.
Americans United for Separation of Church and State is one of the more established groups that keeps tabs on whether churches or religious organizations step over the line when it comes to campaigning. It posts an FAQ on electioneering by houses of worship…………….
http://www.religionlink.org/tip_061009b.php
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